KStrat has released an analysis examining the methodology used in Noble Predictive Insights' (NPI) August 2025 Arizona Republican gubernatorial primary poll, highlighting differences in polling approaches and their potential effects on results.
The NPI poll showed Karrin Taylor Robson at 37% support among Republican primary voters, compared to Andy Biggs at 27%, with 36% undecided.
The NPI poll tracked candidate support over multiple months. Karrin Taylor Robson's numbers increased from 11% in February to 24% in May to 37% in August. Andy Biggs rose from 14% to 17% to 27% over the same period.
The survey found Robson leading among Republicans aged 65 and older (41% to 28%) and among both "Trump first" Republicans (33% to 29%) and "Party-first" Republicans (42% to 28%).
Methodological Analysis
Although, in a recent KStrat report, they examined several aspects of the NPI survey design:
Weighting Method: NPI used general election voter weights rather than Republican primary weights in their calculations.
Candidate Labels: The survey identified Robson as a "Republican" while not providing equivalent identification for Biggs.
Sample Size: The Republican subsample contained 341 weighted respondents.
Issue Response Patterns: The poll showed Biggs scoring higher on specific Republican issues, including border enforcement, social conservatism, pro-life positions, government spending, and Trump loyalty, while Robson maintained higher overall support.
However, it is essential to note that campaign representatives for Robson responded to the analyst by stating that candidates with larger overall support bases can have more total supporters on specific issues, even when smaller percentages of their supporters identify those issues as primary concerns.
It is also essential to note that Sean Noble, who serves as an advisor at KStrat, has stated on his podcast that he is working with the Biggs gubernatorial campaign.
Professional Context
The exchange represents a standard practice where polling organizations review methodological approaches used by other firms. Different organizations employ varying techniques for weighting, sampling, and questionnaire design that can create very fluid polling.
This assessment represents one organization's interpretation of another's survey methods. Both firms continue conducting Arizona political polling using their respective methodological frameworks.
Transparency and Integrity
This methodological discussion emphasizes the critical importance of transparency and integrity in survey research, which is expected to be the guiding principle of all political polling.
The competing analyses reveal how seemingly technical decisions about weighting, sampling, and question design can significantly influence poll results.
"At their best, polls help us understand the pulse of the voter,” explained KStrat CEO Kevin Wen. “But when polls are built on flawed or inconsistent methods, they weaken the very trust that they are meant to build. Integrity and transparency matters in polling and politics, not just in campaigns."
