With November 5th just a week away, the finish line for Arizona Senate candidates Kari Lake (R) and Representative Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) is closing in. Rep. Gallego's lead in the polls is also shrinking as Lake catches up to him, making the average tighter than ever.
In our last update, Five Thirty-Eight placed Rep. Gallego at an average of 8.2% over Lake, while 270 to Win put him at 7.8%, and Real Clear Polling calculated an average lead for the Arizona Congressman over Lake at 6.8%.
Since then, Lake has begun closing the gap, with Five Thirty-Eight and Real Clear Polling winding down Rep. Gallego's average lead to just 6%.
Three polls, including an October 12th-17th survey from Atlas Intel, an October 19th-20th poll from Insider Advantage, and an October 24th-26th survey from the Trafalgar Group place Rep. Gallego just 4 points ahead of Lake, while a Marist College poll run from October 17th to the 22nd doubled his lead to 8%, a survey from High Ground taken between October 19th-20th gave him an extra point for a 9% lead, and an October 16th-18th poll from Redfield & Wilton Strategies placed him at 7% over Lake.
270 to Win uses the same polls to calculate its latest average. However, it logged a 9% lead from High Ground, as reported by Five Thirty-Eight and Real Clear Polling, as 10%, raising the total average from an exact 6% to a slightly higher 6.6%.
While these numbers retain Gallego's lead over Lake, the former gubernatorial candidate recently told Fox News's Laura Ingraham, "My internal polling looks much closer and better. I know what the polling is by talking to the people, and the people are very active right now. They are activated to vote for Trump and me, and they are learning a little bit more about Ruben Gallego. The media has not covered him well; he spent $100 million doing an extreme makeover trying to paint himself as a moderate when he is the most radical left member of Congress that nobody has ever heard of."
