A recent poll from Peak Insights suggests Representative Eli Crane (R-AZ) holds a commanding lead over his Democratic challenger, former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez, for Arizona's 2nd Congressional District in the 2026 midterms.
By the Numbers
The overall number suggests that Rep. Crane has already captured 53% of the ballot in AZ-02, putting him 11 points ahead of Nez (42%), with the remaining 5% undecided, although they supposedly lean towards Rep. Crane.
Most of that 5% is registered Republican and voted for President Donald Trump in 2024.
Moreover, the incumbent Arizona congressman has a good job approval rating in Congress, with 41% of voters approving of his conduct compared to 25% disapproving. On top of that, Trump still has a 51% approval rating among the district's voters, and 95% of those people view Crane favorably.
Nez Can't Keep Up?
Notably, 42% of AZ-02 voters chose Kamala Harris in 2024, the same share Nez has winning on the initial ballot in Peak Insights' 2026 poll, even with Nez gaining 2% of Trump voters who have switched since 2024.
In other words, all the Democrats in AZ-02 were going to vote for Nez anyway, but even with that uncontested support, he may not be able to close the gap enough with Crane to win in November.
A Repeat of 2024?
Nez previously challenged Crane in 2024, and an October poll from Noble Predictive Insights at the time put them neck-and-neck at 42%. Despite raising $1 million more than Crane, Nez ultimately lost, with 46.4% of the vote compared to Crane's 53.7%.
That relatively slim lead seems to have kept Nez unbowed, as he announced his intent to defeat Crane again in July of this year in a post to X, writing, "I am running for Congress to defeat MAGA Republican Eli Crane, flip Arizona's 2nd blue, and take back the house. Let's win this."
Nevertheless, if Peak Insights' poll is accurate, Crane might as well have already won.
