With less than two months left, races nationwide are coming down to the wire, and the Arizona Senate race between Kari Lake (R) and Representative Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) for Senator Kyrsten Sinema's (I-AZ) seat is no exception as the poll distance between them tightens.
Our last update near the end of August suggested Rep. Gallego was gaining on Lake. However, new polls indicate that the gap was not as big as it looked, as the average distance between the two has closed considerably in recent weeks.
Real Clear Polling noted that from August 23rd to September 12th, Rep. Gallego's average lead over Lake dropped 2.2.% from its previous average of 6.7% to 4.5%. Polls calculated to get that average include a CNN poll from August 23rd to August 29th, which placed the Arizona Congressman 3 points ahead at 47% and Lake at 44%.
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A Hill/Emerson poll from August 25th to 29th was an outlier, giving Gallego 7 points over Lake 49% to 42%, as the Trafalgar Group (Sept. 11th-12th) and Insider Advantage (Aug. 29-30) both placed him at 4 points ahead.
Gallego's average lead over Lake was slightly larger at 5.8% in 270 to Win's latest calculations, although they used five polls, including the Trafalgar Group and CNN surveys. The other three placed him over five points ahead of Lake. A Times (UK)/YouGov poll released September 5th put him at 50% and Lake at 42%, while a Morning Consult survey released September 9th resulted in a similar 8-point lead, 49% to 41%.
A Redfield and Wilton poll from September 10th put Gallego at 48% to Lake's 42%.
Nevertheless, Lake's messaging is reaching voters, as the tightening gap between her and Gallego demonstrates.
In an interview with Cactus Politics at the end of August, Lake assured us, "The Arizona voters are 100 percent with Trump. I don't need the polls to tell me where the voter is... the people are all saying 'we gotta get Trump back."
Last week, Lake received the endorsement of Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC), who praised her as "a reliable, conservative vote to secure our border, support law and order, bring down inflation, and give the American people breathing room to regain control of their lives."
