2024 Senate Race Tightens Between Lake and Gallego in Polls

2024 Senate Race Tightens Between Lake and Gallego in Polls

Grayson Bakich
Grayson Bakich
June 20, 2024

New polling data has come out in the battle for Senator Kyrsten Sinema's (I-AZ) Senate seat between Kari Lake (R) and Representative Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), showing the Arizona Congressman's lead is beginning to narrow as November comes in just four months.

In our last update at the end of May, Rep. Gallego maintained a decent lead based on data taken from several polls, with an average of eight percentage points as two of the five polls gave him a significant edge, Noble Predictive Insights putting the Arizona Congressman ten points ahead of Lake while a Florida Atlantic University poll placed him eight points ahead, thereby increasing his average lead.

Since then, Lake has tightened the gap, according to Real Clear Polling. A Fabrizio/Anzalone (sponsored by AARP) survey was taken between May 28th and June 4th, and a later Rasmussen Reports poll taken between June 11th and June 13th shows her only three points behind Rep. Gallego. The Fabrizio/Anzalone poll places Lake at 45% to Gallego's 48%, and the Rasmussen Reports has her at 41% to 44%.

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An Emerson College/The Hill survey taken between June 13th and June 18th has Lake behind the Arizona Congressman by four, although FiveThirtyEight reports it as five.

However, because Real Clear Polling has calculated averages since April 28th, Gallego has maintained an average lead of 5.9%.

270 to Win reported another poll taken on May 30th by Cook Political showing Gallego's lead of five, 46% to Lake's 41%. They factored this into a new average, counting May's Noble Predictive Insights and FAU polls.

Including the Cook poll, the AARP (Fabrizio/Anzalone) survey, and the Emerson/The Hill's numbers, 270 to Win gives Gallego an average lead of 6.2%.

That is still a vulnerable position and one the Lake campaign has continually hammered.

A new poll conducted by the National Republican Senatorial Committee puts Lake ahead by a single point, 47% to Gallego's 46%.

The Lake campaign commented on the poll, saying it aligns with former President Donald Trump's advantage over President Joe Biden in the Grand Canyon State. It said, "Notably, Gallego has wasted millions in dishonest attacks ads against Lake and has little to show for it, with his poll numbers stagnating and Lake gaining momentum."

Moreover, Lake added, "Arizonans overwhelmingly disapprove of Joe Biden's performance. Soon, Arizonans will learn just how closely Ruben Gallego is tied to Joe Biden and his radical policies – voting with him 100% of the time – and they won't approve of his record either."

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Grayson Bakich

Grayson Bakich

Florida born and raised, Grayson Bakich is a recent recipient of a Master’s Degree in Political Science at the University of Central Florida. His thesis examined recent trends in political polarization and how this leads into justification of violence.

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