Representative Andy Biggs (R-AZ) is blowing his opponents out of the water in the Republican primary polls for the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election, and it's not even close.
By the Numbers
270 To Win's latest polling numbers show that Rep. Biggs has an average favorability rating of 58.5% across the two most recent polls, with the most recent from Noble Predictive Insights, dated July 7th, and NextGenP, dated June 18th.
Representative David Schweikert (R-AZ), his closest primary opponent, has an average favorability rating of 10.5%. The other two, Scott Neely and Ken Miceli, are in the single digits with 2.5% and 1.5%, respectively.
In fact, a sidebar on 270 To Win shows chances calculated by Kalshi, which give Rep. Biggs a 99% chance of winning the Republican primary.
Clearly, Biggs is overwhelmingly popular among Arizona Republicans.
Will It Defeat Katie Hobbs?
However, there is still a chance that Governor Katie Hobbs (D-AZ) could defeat the Arizona congressman in November, as 270 To Win's average poll rating puts Hobbs at 44.5% compared to Biggs's 37.5%, although the TIPP poll used to calculate that average is from April 29th and the Noble Predictive Insights poll is dated from May 15th.
The Kalshi sidebar also calculates that the Democratic Party has a 79% chance of keeping the governorship in November, compared to a 20% chance for the Republican Party to take it.
Previous Republican Primary Developments
Biggs stole the show from businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson, who was initially marked as the Republican favorite until she dropped out in January of this year.
Robson cited the need to keep the Republican Party unified, saying, "It only weakens our conservative cause and gives the left exactly what they want: a fractured Republican Party heading into November. With so much on the line in 2026, I am not willing to contribute to that outcome."
Biggs welcomed her campaign's suspension, calling it "well-run" and lauding her "experience as a businesswoman brought a valuable perspective to the race and her deep love for Arizona and its future has always been evident. Cindy and I send our best wishes to Karrin and her family in their next chapter."
