Stephen Shadegg, Director of Americans for Prosperity's (AFP) Arizona chapter, joined Cactus Politics for an exclusive interview about the upcoming elections as November approaches. Shadegg suggested the border crisis and the economy are the two most urgent issues people will vote on and gave takes on both the race between Kari Lake (R) and Representative Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) for Senate and Representative Juan Ciscomani's (R-AZ) battle to retain his seat in the House.
"I think across the state, if you look at statewide, and then even down to [Rep.] Ciscomani's district, which is [Congressional District (CD)] 6, and [Representative David] Schweikert's district, which is CD 1, I think the driving issues for most folks in the country is the economy and the border. I think here in Arizona, especially, the border is extremely important because we have seen what has taken place in the last four years. And then I think the border probably was the driving factor until the economy. I mean, you just cannot wipe [that] away, even with prices dropping temporarily," said Shadegg.
As a result, the AFP-AZ Director suggested the abortion issue, which became prominent in Arizona when an April ruling upheld an 1864 statute prohibiting most abortions, would not drive voter turnout.
Does Texas have a constitutional right to defy Supreme Court on protecting its border?
"I think the Democrats missed their mark of that. I think they pulled the triggers too early, and I think most folks in Arizona are looking at the economy and the border first, and I think abortion is down the ticket for them," Shadegg continued.
The conversation shifted to the specifics of the race between Kari Lake and Rep. Gallego and how Lake could defeat the Arizona Congressman. Shadegg suggested Lake should "talk to a larger audience" as the Grand Canyon State is "probably 32-35-32 or something, and I think it is very clear that she has her base."
"She needs to appeal to individuals who are in the middle of the road who, quite frankly, when it comes to issues like abortion [and] when it comes to the border, they are really more focused on common sense solutions and being able to work with both sides and coming up with solutions that work for everyone, not just a select group on the right or the left," the AFP-AZ Director said, ultimately suggesting the results would be based more on the volume of turnout than appealing to the middle.
However, Shadegg also claimed that Gallego is doing better at appealing to the middle than Lake, copying the tactics of Senators Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) and Mark Kelly (D-AZ) to paint himself as "an independent voice for Arizona."
"I think that the people who know Ruben know he is not, but those who do not are the ones that are going to decide the race," noted Shadegg.
Regarding Rep. Ciscomani's district, Shadegg said he was "definitely in danger" of losing his seat, but is currently favorable to win.
"I think in Juan's district, he has it favorable to him right now because he is going against his same opponent that he went against in 2022 [Kirsten Engel], and Engel already came out when she was asked directly whether she believes that we have a border crisis, she said 'no,' and I think that is a huge issue for folks in southern Arizona. They understand, they see it firsthand, and I think that she does not really have the policy background to support to gain any more ground that she gained last cycle," Shadegg concluded.
