Gallego's Lead on Lake Shrinking in Latest Polls

The Arizona Senate race between Representative Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) and Kari Lake (R) has taken a turn with recent events. The consistent leading streak held by Rep. Gallego over Lake in the polls has broken, and the distance between them has gotten closer as July comes to a close and November gets closer.

In our last update, Rep. Gallego held an average between 5.9% according to Real Clear Polling, while 27o to Win gave him a higher 6.2% in the polls against Lake, as the latter incorporated more recent surveys.

Since then, several new polls have been conducted, and the gap between the Arizona Congressman and the Republican challenger has been notably smaller.

A poll conducted by North Star Opinion Research and sponsored by American Greatness from June 17th to June 20th placed Gallego a single point ahead of Lake at 39% to her 38%, while a survey running from June 29th to July 1st by Remington Research has them at a dead even 47% each.

An internal campaign poll conducted by Lake from July 10th to July 11th gives her a similar single-point lead of 44% to Gallego's 43%, while a Democratic-sponsored poll from the Progress Action Fund places him at 50% and Lake at 47%.

Gallego maintains an edge in several other Democratic-sponsored polls. A The Times/SAY survey from July 4th to July 12th placed him at 48% to Lake's 41%, while a July 19-20th poll by Public Policy Polling gives Gallego a similar seven-point lead over Lake at 50% to 43%.

A slightly earlier poll from Insider Advantage lowers the threshold to 6 points, Gallego at 47% with Lake at 41%.

Real Clear Politics' average point spread since June 11th significantly dropped from 5.9% to just 3%, while 270 to Win's lead also shrunk from 6.2% to 5.3% based on an average from The Times, Public Policy Polling, and Insider Advantage.

Combining these recent surveys together gives Gallego an average lead of 4.1%, further demonstrating the narrowing gap between him and Lake as we enter August.

Lake recently generated a healthy dose of hype during her appearance at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. She attacked her opponent as "Biden's favorite Congressman" who is "full of bad ideas."

"Gallego and the Democrats have handed over control of my state, Arizona's border, to the drug cartels," she added.