The 2024 presidential election has been an unconventional election cycle to say the least. On the eve of Election Night, we are no closer to estimating who has the advantage heading into the election. New data from the New York Times shows that President Donald Trump (R) has gained support in Pennsylvania, but Vice President Kamala Harris (D) has also gained support in North Carolina and Georgia. The 2024 presidential election remains close, and the candidates are making their final pitches.
According to a New York Times/Siena College poll conducted between October 24th and November 2nd, Vice President Harris leads in Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Georgia; President Trump leads in Arizona; and both candidates are tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan. The poll surveyed 7,878 likely voters across the battleground states as both candidates aggressively campaign for support.
Despite President Trump's 49% to Vice President Harris' 45% lead in Arizona, Democrats have a larger lead. In the Senate race between former news anchor Kari Lake (D) and Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego (D), Rep. Gallego leads Lake.
Both FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics indicate that Rep. Gallego has a narrow lead, but Lake has gained support in recent weeks. As well, other polls show her leading in the race. According to FiveThirtyEight's polling averages, Rep. Gallego is leading by 4.6 points with 49.3% against Lake's 44.7%. RealClearPolitics, on the other hand, shows Rep. Gallego leading by 4 points with 49.4% against Lake's 45.4%.
Although Rep. Gallego has led in the polls since April, the Lake campaign believes that it has a chance at coming out victorious tomorrow because of the Trump campaign's mobilization efforts in the state and across the country. Last month, Lake's campaign commented that "the momentum is with President Trump and Kari Lake, and with record Republican early voting numbers, we are confident that Arizonans will deliver both Trump and Lake a victory one week from today on November 5th."
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