Gallego in Trouble? Poll Has Him 6 Points Behind Kari Lake

Arizona's three-way race for Senator Kyrsten Sinema's (I-AZ) seat has taken a new turn, as Representative Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) claims to be six points behind in the polls against his Republican challenger Kari Lake in a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), calling for donations from voters.

"Not the news I was hoping to share but polling has us down 6 points to MAGA-extremist Kari Lake. And the truth is, we’re pacing behind on our fundraising goals. I can't do it alone but if lots of people like you chip in, we will have a real shot at taking the lead and WINNING," Rep. Gallego tweeted, featuring a link to ActBlue.

Despite this apparent gap, verification remains scant. FiveThirtyEight places Lake a single point ahead of Rep. Gallego when polled to include Sen. Sinema, and only two points ahead when Sinema is removed, as of February 1st.

Nevertheless, Rep. Gallego's call for donations in the face of his falling behind in the polls does line up with previous coverage showing that while he is the best-funded candidate in the race at $6.5 million in his war chest, Gallego is spending more money than he is taking in, with 60% of his campaign donations going to expenses.

Similarly, Lake's apparent lead in the polls ties into how much of her campaign funds have come from small-dollar donors, raising $1.2 million in the first fundraising quarter yet accumulating $308,000 worth of debt.

In recent comments to Cactus Politics, Gallego harshly criticized Lake, calling her an "extremist" and two-time "election denier" who has been engaging in "fundraisers with QAnon supporters."

"She can do all she wants, she could say all she wants, but there is no way she’s gonna cover up how extreme and dangerous she is," Gallego told Cactus Politics.

In September, Lake faced criticism from supporters of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) during his 2024 Presidential run for claiming Gov. DeSantis supported lockdowns, mask mandates, and vaccine mandates during the COVID-19 pandemic, which was quickly proven false.

Grayson Bakich

Florida born and raised, Grayson Bakich is a recent recipient of a Master’s Degree in Political Science at the University of Central Florida. His thesis examined recent trends in political polarization and how this leads into justification of violence.