Governor Katie Hobbs (D-AZ) is going on offense ahead of what could be one of the most consequential gubernatorial races in the country, warning that the outcome of the 2026 election carries implications well beyond state lines.
Gov. Hobbs, one of only five Democratic governors currently serving in states that President Donald Trump carried in 2024, is making the case that the race is about more than Arizona politics. She won her seat in 2022 by a razor-thin margin of just 17,117 votes, and faces what polling suggests will be a rematch against a Trump-aligned opponent.
"Let me be crystal clear, there is a reason Donald Trump wants Andy Biggs as governor of Arizona," Hobbs said. "We are one of the seven swing states that decide presidential elections, and if Andy Biggs becomes governor, Arizona would be the first swing state to be led by an election denier. The time to stop that is not 2028, it is right now."
Recent Polling Suggests
On the Republican side, Representative Andy Biggs (R-AZ) has emerged as the clear frontrunner heading into the July 21 primary. A NextGen poll conducted April 13–16 showed Biggs leading the field with 52 percent support, putting him 42 points ahead of the next closest competitor, Representative David Schweikert (R-AZ), who sat at 10 percent.
An earlier Noble Predictive Insights survey from February 23–26 showed a similar dynamic, with Rep. Biggs at 40 percent and Schweikert at 19 percent, a 21-point gap.
Biggs has been energized by President Trump's 2024 six-point victory in Arizona, which has fueled a conservative field eager to reclaim the governorship.
Despite the enthusiasm on the Republican side, general election polling suggests Hobbs currently holds an advantage. The Noble Predictive Insights February survey showed Hobbs leading Schweikert by 9 points, 44 to 35 percent, and leading Biggs by 5 points, 42 to 37 percent.
With the primary still months away and the general election further out, both sides are treating Arizona as ground zero in a broader national battle over control of swing states.
