Eli Crane Wins Reelection by a Single Point

Arizona's 2nd Congressional District results have finally been settled, and incumbent Representative Eli Crane (R-AZ) won his reelection campaign by a single point.

The Results

Decision Desk HQ called the race for Rep. Crane Monday night after counting over 95% of votes. Rep. Crane finished with 49.62% of the vote, while his Democratic challenger Jonathan Nez came in second with 48.55%.

That is an extremely small lead of 1.07 points, especially when President Donald Trump won the district in 2024 by nearly 15 points.

Rep. Crane's margin of victory is the tightest of the four Arizona Republicans who survived Tuesday's Blue Wave, and Representative Paul Gosar (R-AZ) was the only one who won his reelection handily with a double-digit margin.

Newly elected former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb won Congressional District 5 by 3 points, while Representative Abe Hamadeh (R-AZ) narrowly defeated Bernadette Greene-Placentia, winning 51.24% of the vote to her 48.76%, roughly 2.5 points.

The Campaign

Jonathan Nez, Crane's Democratic challenger, is a former Navajo Nation President who announced his candidacy last July, hoping to defeat the incumbent Arizona congressman again.

Nez ran on a platform addressing immigration, affordability, environmental sustainability, and advancing rural infrastructure, saying, "I have fought for rural Arizona my entire life. It is long past time we had someone fight for us in Washington."

A poll from August of this year gave Crane an 11-point lead over Nez, who already had undisputed Democratic support in AZ-02, but would not keep up even if gained some former Trump voters.

Which only makes Crane's 1-point victory all the more interesting.