How Long Will the Government Shutdown Last?

The federal government has entered a shutdown, affecting hundreds of thousands of workers nationwide and raising questions about the duration of the disruption.

The length of the current shutdown remains uncertain. In the past, the government shutdown that began in December 2018 and ended in January 2019 lasted 35 days, making it the longest in U.S. history. 

That shutdown centered on disagreements over border wall funding and concluded after negotiations led to a temporary spending agreement.

The current situation differs in that Congress has not passed any funding bills before the shutdown, unlike the 2018 scenario, where some agencies had already received funding.

Impact on Federal Workers

Arizona's federal workforce faces direct consequences from the shutdown, divided into two categories based on their work status.

Excepted workers are required to continue reporting to work without immediate pay. This group includes Border Patrol agents, TSA officers at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, air traffic controllers, active-duty military personnel, Coast Guard personnel, and some staff at the VA medical center. 

These workers will receive back pay once the government reopens, but paychecks are suspended during the shutdown.

Non-exempt workers are furloughed, meaning they are placed on unpaid leave. This category includes National Park Service employees at sites like the Grand Canyon, certain IRS staff, and administrative personnel across federal agencies. 

These workers also receive back pay after the shutdown ends, though federal contractors typically do not have the same guarantee.

Military members will miss their first paycheck on October 15, while other federal employees will experience their first missed payment on October 24.

Affected Groups

Arizona state employees are not impacted, as state and federal governments operate with separate funding mechanisms. Members of Congress continue to receive their salaries during shutdowns, as required by the Constitution, although some Arizona representatives have requested that their pay be withheld during the shutdown.

The shutdown has broader economic implications for Arizona due to the state's reliance on federal funding. Governor Katie Hobbs has indicated the state will not use state funds to maintain federal park operations during the shutdown.

Travel Issues

Air travelers may experience delays during an extended shutdown. During the 2018-2019 shutdown, some TSA agents and air traffic controllers called out sick, leading to travel disruptions at airports nationwide. Similar patterns could emerge if the current shutdown continues.

Passport processing may also slow down. While passport agencies remain open during shutdowns, reduced staffing due to furloughs can lead to extended processing times.

Future of Shutdown

Shutdown duration depends on when Congress reaches a funding agreement. The 2018-2019 shutdown resulted in an estimated $3 billion in lost economic activity, as informed by the Congressional Budget Office. The current shutdown affects all federal agencies from the start, as no funding bills were passed beforehand.

Previous shutdowns have lasted anywhere from a few days to over a month. The duration of the current shutdown will ultimately be determined by the pace of Congressional negotiations and the complexity of the funding disagreements involved.