Trump Cruises in Arizona Because of Ticket-Splitting?

The 2024 presidential election has concluded, and the American people have elected President Donald Trump (R) as their 47th president. The president’s election comes with a boost in support from state’s he lost in 2020. As the final votes are tallied, Arizona is poised to go to President Trump, and ticket-splitting may have been a factor in swaying his way.

In the 2020 election, President Joe Biden (D) carried Arizona to the finish line, but this time around, the state has rejected his vice-presidential candidate.

In fact, the “blue wall” that Democrats hopes would get Vice President Kamala Harris (D) past the 270 electoral college votes shifted red. President Trump is also expected to carry Nevada, which went blue in 2020.

Arizona paints a different picture.

One issue that took priority for Democrats this election cycle is abortion rights. On the campaign trail, Democrats consistently presented the president as a danger to women’s rights, arguing that he would sign a federal abortion ban despite the president calling it a state issue.

In Arizona, voters backed Proposition 139, a constitutional amendment that would guarantee abortion access until fetal viability and allow abortions later to protect the health or life of a pregnant woman. However, projections show that the state is backing President Trump.

How is that so? Ticket-splitting could be the answer.

Despite Democrats hoping for supporters of the proposition to similarly vote for Vice President Harris, it seems that the opposite has occurred. Proposition 139 passed with a final vote of 61.7%, and with 61% of votes being reported by the Associated Press at the time of this writing, President Trump is leading in Arizona with 51.9% of the vote. In the 2020 election, the state voted for President Biden.

Political pundits have discussed that Vice President Harris has underperformed when compared to President Biden, and she has yet to address her supporters or the American people.