Latest Poll Numbers for Lake vs. Gallego

With just over three weeks left, the Arizona Senate race remains a battleground as candidates Kari Lake (R) and Representative Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) continue to vie for votes. Their recent heated debate on Wednesday night, just before the latest polls, underscores the intensity of their fight as the average lead remains tight.

Our last report from mid-September suggested Lake's poll numbers against Rep. Gallego were climbing, narrowing his average lead over her to approximately 5.8%.

Despite many giving the Arizona Congressman the advantage, more recent polls do not move the needle considerably when the average is calculated.

For instance, Five Thirty-Eight's collection of polls includes an AARP poll from September 24th to October 1st and an Emerson College survey from October 5th to October 8th. Both these polls gave Rep. Gallego a 7-point lead over Lake, with 51% to 44% in the AARP poll and 50% to 43% in the Emerson College survey.

A Redfield and Wilton Strategies poll from September 27th to October 5th and an ActiVote survey from September 8th to October 10th both give Gallego a 6-point lead: 48% to 42% in the Redfield and Wilton poll and 53% to 47% in the ActiVote survey.

Two outliers included in the Five Thirty-Eight report include the RMG Research poll from September 30th to October 2nd, giving the Arizona Congressman a 10-point lead (52%-42%) and a broader 13-point lead from the Republican-backed SoCal Strategies survey from October 5th to 7th, putting Gallego at 51% to Lake's 39%.

The average in these six polls rounds out to 8.2%.

270 to Win's average, including the Emerson College, RMG Research, AARP, and Redfield and Wilton polls, is smaller at 7.8%, as they use two different polls from the ActiVote and SoCal Strategies.

A HighGround survey released on October 4th places Gallego 10 points ahead of Lake at 51% to her 41%, and an Insider Advantage poll released on October 3rd puts him at 50% to Lake's 43%.

Lastly, Real Clear Polling calculated the smallest average lead for Gallego over Lake at 6.8%, using the Emerson College, Insider Advantage, AARP, and High Ground polls in addition to a September 21st to September 24th survey from USA Today (with a 6% difference between Lake and Gallego) and a September 20th to September 25th poll from Atlas Intel with only 4 points' distance between the candidates.

With the debate behind us, time will tell how much the numbers change as November 5th and Election Day are near.