Crane and Nez are Tied in new House Race Poll

A new independent poll shows that Arizona’s race for House district 2 could be a close one. Former Navajo Nation president Jonathan Nez (D) is challenging Arizona Rep. Eli Crane (R), and both are tied at 42%. Previously considered a sure win for Republicans, Nez’s popularity has netted him a springboard that could elect him to office.

According to a Noble Predictive Insights poll conducted for Inside Elections, both Rep. Crane and Nez are tied in their race for Arizona’s 2^nd congressional district. The poll surveyed 414 likely voters between October 10^thand October 12^th, and the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8%.

If Nez is elected on November 5^th, he would be Arizona’s first ever Native American elected to the House of Representatives.

The poll comes at a time when Arizona Sheriff Mark Lamb has endorsed Rep. Crane again, calling him “a great American” who cares about the American people and who wants to secure the southern border.

In 2022, Rep. Crane defeated Arizona Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D), flipping the seat red. Rep. Crane won the seat by 8 points, and the district leans red. In 2016, President Donald Trump (R) carried the district by 10 points, and he carried the district by 8 points in 2020.

Nez has called Rep. Crane an “extremist,” warning that the Arizona Republican puts “MAGA” over Arizonans. Earlier this year, the Democratic challenger discussed some of the issues his campaign is focusing on, which include wildfire management, infrastructure, and water security.

“We deserve a representative that will get the needed resources back into our communities,” he said.

So far, Nez has outraised Rep. Crane in the third quarter by $1 million, attracting $2.6 million to Rep. Crane's $1.6 million. Nez has also spent $1.4 million on paid media since September, which includes running broadcast TV ads in Phoenix.