Gallego Continues Gaining in Polls, Lake Falling Further Behind

With just over two months left, new polls are not looking good for Kari Lake (R) in her battle for Senator Kyrsten Sinema's (I-AZ) seat in the Senate against Representative Ruben Gallego (D-AZ). The gains made by the Arizona Congressman in the polls grow, bringing his average lead over the one-time gubernatorial candidate higher.

Our last update earlier this August suggested Rep. Gallego had recovered from a dip in his overall lead on Lake near the end of July. Since then, new polls have been released indicating that Rep. Gallego has recovered and is creating distance again.

Two new surveys conducted by the New York Times/Siena College and Cook Political Report, both released August 15th, placed the Arizona Congressman 9 points ahead of Lake at 51% versus 42%, while a Rasmussen Reports poll from August 13th to the 17th has Rep. Gallego at 48% to Lake's 40%.

The smallest distances were found in a poll from Redfield & Wilton (August 12th to the 15th), where Gallego has a 5-point lead at 44% to Lake's 39%. A Republican-sponsored Club for Growth Action Super PAC poll, which ran from August 11th to the 13th, placed Gallego just two points ahead of Lake, 48% to 46%.

Real Clear Polling has given the Arizona Congressman an average of 6.7% ahead of Lake, while 270 to Win, which includes the Emerson College poll reported in our last update, places him an average of 7.6 points ahead of her.

The author's average from these numbers reported is 6.6%, calculated from the New York Times/Siena College poll, the Cook Political poll, the Redfield and Wilton poll, and the Club for Growth poll.

While these polls were conducted the week before the Democratic National Convention (DNC), the anticipation likely brought out more Gallego supporters.

The Arizona Congressman appeared at the DNC in Chicago on Thursday, its final night. In his address, he invoked the spirit of the late Senator John McCain (R-AZ) but did not mention Lake.

Lake, however, has not faltered, scoring the endorsements of Sheriff Mark Lamb, Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL), and former rival Karrin Taylor Robson, who ran against her in the Republican gubernatorial primary in 2022.

Additionally, she has continued to attack Gallego's and Vice President Kamala Harris's policies, recently calling the latter a "communist" in response to proposed price controls.