Lake Lagging Again? New Poll Pushes Her Back Against Gallego

Several new polls conducted since our last update on the race between Kari Lake (R) and Representative Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) for Kyrsten Sinema's (I-AZ) Senate seat, with one of the most recent surveys pushed Lake back by double digits but has minimal effect on Rep. Gallego's leading average.

As Cactus Politics reported earlier in May, an Emerson College poll on April 29th put the Arizona contenders almost neck-and-neck, with Lake just two points behind Rep. Gallego. This narrow gap brought her within an average of five points behind the Congressman.

In the two weeks since, according to 270 to Win, a poll from a May 7th Data Orbital increased the gap by one point (44% to Gallego's 48), as did a May 13th poll conducted by Siena College and the New York Times, putting her 41% to his 45%

Lake shows serious trouble in a survey taken on May 19th by CBS News and YouGov. Gallego is 13 points ahead of Lake, 49 to 36.

However, the overall average lead the Arizona Congressman has over his Republican opponent only increased slightly, as the combined average of the Emerson, Orbital, Siena, and YouGov polls rounds down to 5.8%

Regardless, the Lake campaign has maintained high energy, recently launching the "Families Fighting Fentanyl" coalition to raise awareness of the massive numbers of fentanyl pouring over the southern border thanks to the Biden Administration's policies, which have claimed hundreds of thousands of lives.

"I was honored to be joined in Nogales by Angel moms & dads who have lost a child to fentanyl poisoning. When I get to Washington, D.C., We're going to go HARD after the monsters who have been creating & importing this poison into America. We're going to save lives starting in January of 2025," Lake announced on X (formerly Twitter).

The Arizona Senate candidate later appeared on Fox Business's Mornings with Maria, where she blasted the Biden Administration for intentionally keeping the border open to shore up Democratic votes in the upcoming General Election in November. She supported the SAVE Act introduced by Representative Chip Roy (R-TX) and advocated by Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and former President Donald Trump.

Grayson Bakich

Florida born and raised, Grayson Bakich is a recent recipient of a Master’s Degree in Political Science at the University of Central Florida. His thesis examined recent trends in political polarization and how this leads into justification of violence.