Lake Vs. Gallego: Are the Polls Widening or Staying Steady in Wake of Abortion Ruling?

Arizona was set reeling by the State Supreme Court's decision to uphold an 1864 law almost outlawing abortion entirely. Democrats have mobilized heavily in demanding the law's repeal, successfully bringing it to the ballot in November. As Kari Lake (R) and Representative Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) fight for Senator Kyrsten Sinema's (I-AZ) seat, did the ruling have any effect on their poll numbers?

The latest data does not seem to suggest as such since our last update. At the end of March, Rep. Gallego maintained an average of six points ahead of Lake as of March 15th, with a poll by The Hill putting him ahead by two points. A March 20th poll reported by 270 to Win gave him a slightly wider lead of four points.

However, a RABA Research poll from April 1st doubled the gap between Lake and Rep. Gallego to eight points, 36% to Lake's 28%, according to 270 to Win. Retaining the previous Emerson College poll placing him four points ahead, the combined average retains Gallego's six-point lead over Lake, 40% to 34%.

Similarly, the most recent poll, ending on April 11th, conducted by the Tyson Group, showed the Arizona Congressman ahead of his Republican challenger by five points, 39% to 34%, as reported by Real Clear Polling.

In essence, Arizona's abortion ruling does not appear to have affected the poll race between Gallego and Lake. However, this lack of impact likely resulted from both candidates speaking out against the ruling.

Lake called the ruling "out of step with Arizonans," and added, "This is a very personal issue that should be determined by each individual state and her people. I oppose today's ruling, and I am calling on Katie Hobbs and the State Legislature to come up with an immediate common sense solution that Arizonans can support."

Similarly, Gallego said on X (formerly Twitter), "Today's ruling is devastating news for Arizona women, whose rights have been set back 160 years. I will never stop fighting for Arizonans’ reproductive freedom and will do all I can to protect abortion rights."

With Election Day still over six months away, who knows what could happen between now and November?

Grayson Bakich

Florida born and raised, Grayson Bakich is a recent recipient of a Master’s Degree in Political Science at the University of Central Florida. His thesis examined recent trends in political polarization and how this leads into justification of violence.