Lake Catching Up to Gallego in Polls as Both Rack Up Endorsements

Kari Lake

The latest stats for the 2024 Senate horse race for Arizona between Representative Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) and Kari Lake (R) suggest Lake is starting to regain her numbers in the polls, catching up as we head into April.

The newest numbers from FiveThirtyEight were taken from an Emerson College poll sponsored by The Hill, ending on March 15th. Lake is narrowly behind Rep. Gallego at 49% to his 51%, a number possible thanks to Senator Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) not running to retain her seat.

However, a different poll reported by 270 to Win showed a different result taken from March 20th, widening Rep. Gallego's lead by two more points, 44% to Lake's 40%, although 16 additional points were for other candidates.

Regardless, RealClearPolitics puts Gallego at an average of 6 points ahead of Lake from February 6th to March 15th, lining up with Cactus Politics' previous report showing the Arizona Democrat ahead of his Republican challenger by up to ten points in a poll conducted by Noble Predictive Insights, while previous Emerson College polls placed him ahead of Lake by six when including Sen. Sinema and seven without Sinema.

The narrowing gap between Gallego and Lake reflects their dueling successes in accruing endorsements. At the beginning of March, the Trump-backed Lake received additional endorsements from Senators Joni Ernst (R-IA) and Markwayne Mullin (R-OK).

Easily the most significant endorsements for Lake came from Senators John Barrasso (R-WY), John Thune (R-SD), and John Cornyn (R-TX), key allies to the retiring Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY).

Others who have endorsed Lake include Florida Representatives Byron Donalds (R-FL), Cory Mills (R-FL), Matt Gaetz (R-FL), and Brian Mast (R-FL).

Rep. Gallego has not been lacking in endorsements of his own, having received the endorsement of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ), and Representatives Raul Grijalva (D-AZ) and Dan Goldman (D-NY).

Notably, the Arizona Republic showed Gallego having more endorsements from state-level officials in Arizona, such as Governor Katie Hobbs (D-AZ).

Such a dynamic in endorsements will surely propel the race going forward the closer we get to November.

Grayson Bakich

Florida born and raised, Grayson Bakich is a recent recipient of a Master’s Degree in Political Science at the University of Central Florida. His thesis examined recent trends in political polarization and how this leads into justification of violence.