Gallego Retakes Lead in Polls, Lake Falls Behind Up to Ten Points

Gallego Retakes Lead in Polls, Lake Falls Behind Up to Ten Points

Grayson Bakich
Grayson Bakich
February 23, 2024

Earlier in February, Representative Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) claimed he was six points behind Kari Lake in a poll, calling for donations from supporters. Perhaps it has paid off, as Rep. Gallego has retaken the lead according to four recent polls, with one placing him ten points ahead.

FiveThirtyEight posted the latest results from February, with two from Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) and two from Emerson College, sponsored by The Hill. Noble Predictive Insights' initial poll from February 6th to February 13th places Rep. Gallego ten points ahead of Lake (47% to 37%), while a second from the same time frame, including Senator Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), narrows the gap to three points, 34% for Rep. Gallego, 31% for Lake, and 23% for Sen. Sinema.

Emerson's polls were more recent, taken from February 16th to February 19th, yet the gap remains larger when Sen. Sinema is tallied with the others. Gallego stands at 36% to Lake's 30% and Sinema's 21%.

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Removing Sinema increases the distance between Gallego and Lake by one point, with the Arizona Congressman up 46% to his Republican challenger's 39%.

David Byler, Noble Predictive Insight's Chief of Research, suggested Gallego's recent lead could be attributed to Lake's fiery and ardently pro-Trump rhetoric causing her to "struggle with McCain-style Republicans in suburban Phoenix."

"That’s why Gallego wins so handily in a two-way race but barely leads in the three-way contest. It’s also why Republicans lead Democrats on the generic congressional ballot in this poll. There’s a chunk of moderate Republicans who would pick Gallego over Lake in a two-way matchup, Sinema over both of them in a three-way race, and a bland, generic Republican over anyone – if the GOP would nominate one," Byler added.

Lake has disparaged the late Senator John McCain (R-AZ) in the past, though she has attempted to reconcile with daughter Meghan McCain, who rebuked Lake saying, "no peace."

Nevertheless, Lake remains energized, recently telling voters in an appearance on Real America's Voice to go "beast mode" and "vote like your lives depend on it."

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Grayson Bakich

Grayson Bakich

Florida born and raised, Grayson Bakich is a recent recipient of a Master’s Degree in Political Science at the University of Central Florida. His thesis examined recent trends in political polarization and how this leads into justification of violence.

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