While Trump Won, Arizona Did Turn More Blue

While Trump Won, Arizona Did Turn More Blue

Joel Andres Frewa
Joel Andres Frewa
November 10, 2016

Donald Trump was able to turn PA, WI and MI Red this time around, but there are signs of worry for Arizona Republicans. While Mitt Romney carried the state with a 10% margin and about 1.2 million votes, Donald Trump carried Arizona with only a 4.5% margin and just over 900,000 votes.

Polling and turnout models also indicated that John McCain would carry the state by well over 10%, and he carried his election in 2010 with a margin of well over 20%, even carrying Cocochino and Pima counties. This election he did not carry those counties and he only won by 53% of the vote.

In fact, turnout in Arizona was way down. The only candidate on the top end of the ballot who was able to increase his vote totals was Libertarian Gary Johnson who in 2012 pulled just under 30,000 votes. This year he surpassed the 75,000 vote mark.

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In district 1, Republicans lost a congressional race they had hoped to gain, prop 206 passed increasing the minimum wage, and Sheriff Joe Arpaio was voter out of office by a resounding margin.

But the worry shouldnt end there, Democrats were able to make some gain in the AZ Legislature as well. The East Valley Tribune reports:

Democrats now hold two of the three legislative seats in Legislative District 18, which covers Ahwatukee and parts of Tempe, Chandler and Mesa...Unofficial results show that Democrat Sean Bowie of Ahwatukee beat Tempe Republican Frank Schmuck 51.3 percent to 48.6 percent while Tempe Democrat Mitzi Epstein ousted 12-year legislator Bob Robson, a Chandler Republican.

While turnout was down across the board, hispanics did increase their share of the electorate, which should worry the AZGOP in the long term.


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Joel Andres Frewa

Joel Andres Frewa

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