Two early public opinion polls offer an early glimpse, but not yet a clear conclusion, about who might be leading the Republican governor's race in Arizona ahead of the 2026 election, highlighting the competitiveness and fluidity of the contest.
KTR's Recent Poll
A publicly released poll from Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP), conducted by Noble Predictive Insights from August 11 to 18, shows Karrin Taylor Robson holding an early lead among Republican voters, with 948 registered voters statewide. The poll found Robson leading with 37% support.
Congressman Andy Biggs followed at 27%, while 36% of Republican voters reported being undecided. The margin of error for the Republican subsample is ±4.99%, as mentioned in the report.
“These numbers confirm what I’ve seen over my 100 campaign stops this summer,” Robson said in a statement. “Thanks to President [Donald] Trump’s endorsement, Republicans are uniting behind our campaign for Governor.”
Robson’s numbers have risen significantly throughout the year, moving from 11% in February to 24% in May and now to 37%. Biggs has also gained momentum, from 14% to 17% to 27% over the same time period.
Opposing Poll
However, as we recently reported, Andy Biggs’ campaign insights are still moving. His poll, conducted between August 19 and 21, surveyed 679 self-identified Republican voters and found Biggs with 65% support, a significant increase from 57% in May.
Robson, by contrast, was at 14% in the same poll. The survey also noted that nearly half of Republican respondents remain unsure about who they’ll support.
Campaign Values
The AZPOP poll also examined the issues that Republican voters value most in a gubernatorial candidate.
Border security topped the list, with 52% of respondents identifying it as a key issue, followed by loyalty to former President Trump (40%), reducing government spending (38%), promoting business growth (38%), and addressing local problems such as water availability (35%).
Both candidates share the same conservative values and have been endorsed by Donald Trump, but the demographics of their support bases differ. Robson’s base is more demographically diverse, with strong support among voters aged 30–44 and those 65 and older.
Is It Too Early In The Race?
The significant contrast between the two polls highlights just how fluid the race remains, with months to go before the primary.
Political analysts caution that early polling, mainly when conducted by or for campaigns, can vary widely depending on methodology, sample size, and timing.
Despite differing narratives, both candidates are gaining traction, and both polls agree on one key point: a large number of Republican voters have yet to make up their minds.
With the GOP primary not scheduled until 2026, the outcome remains highly uncertain.
