Lake Regains Momentum, but Still Behind Gallego in Polls

New polling data has been released only a week after our latest report for the Arizona 2024 Senate race. It shows Republican candidate Kari Lake regaining momentum against her Democratic opponent, Representative Ruben Gallego (D-AZ). However, the Arizona Congressman continues to maintain his lead, which has grown with the new average.

In our last update, a poll conducted on May 19th by CBS and YouGov pushed Lake back by double digits, with 36% of respondents favoring her compared to 49% favoring Rep. Gallego.

However, two polls conducted on May 7th and May 13th show a much narrower gap of four percentage points, giving the Arizona Democrat an average lead of 5.8%.

Just days after this update, two new polls conducted by Florida Atlantic University (FAU) and Noble Predictive Insights, released on May 23rd, show new results. In Noble Predictive Insights' poll, Rep. Gallego leads 46% against Lake's 36%, which narrows to eight points in FAU's survey, with Gallego at 48% to Lake's 39%.

The combined average of the May 7th Data Orbital poll, the New York Times/Siena poll, the CBS/YouGov poll, and these two new polls by FAU and Noble Predictive Insights increases the Arizona Congressman's lead, putting him at an average of 47.2% to Lake's 39.2%.

Nevertheless, the Lake campaign has maintained the offensive. It continues hammering Gallego's voting record, recently condemning him for "flip-flopping" on the issue of non-citizens voting in Washington, D.C. elections.

Last February, Gallego voted in favor of permitting non-citizen residents of Washington, D.C., to vote in local elections, saying, "Washington, D.C. is not Arizona, and I do not believe Congress should be in the business of telling the residents of Washington, D.C. how to hold their democratic elections. Today's vote, if anything, is yet another example of why we need D.C. statehood, so those living in Washington no longer find themselves at the mercy of a vindictive Republican House majority."

Lake quickly called the Arizona Congressman "nothing but a career politician and political opportunist. Flip-flopping on the issues now won't trick Arizonans into thinking he's a moderate after we've watched him vote for open-borders policies time and time again over his decade in Washington, D.C."

Grayson Bakich

Florida born and raised, Grayson Bakich is a recent recipient of a Master’s Degree in Political Science at the University of Central Florida. His thesis examined recent trends in political polarization and how this leads into justification of violence.