So the longest election of our lifetimes will be over in a few hours. To sumarize it with one word, its been INSANE. I dont have to walk you through why it has been so, but I’ve been stareing at the electoral map since august, studying polls and turnout models, calculating voter registration stats, and watching the early vote returns, so here is how I believe the electoral map will settle on November 9th.
This is electoral analysis and what I believe will happen, not what I want to happen. So before you jump down my throat, keep in mind that I do hope I’m wrong.
This is how the RealClearPolitics map sits today, with a record 11 swing states, Clinton is already very close to the 270 magic number. In my analysis I took things like projected turnout, voter registration numbers, voter enthusiasm, polling, even weather into account. It’s also no secret that I place alot of weight on the power of the Hispanic vote. So lets take a look at those states classified at toss ups and see where the map ends up at the end of this piece.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: There’s a rule in politics which is not debated and it always holds true: Democrats vote early in the day, Republicans vote after work. Polling currently favors Clinton and with rain expected throughtout the state in the evening of November 8th the New Hampshire goes…Clinton.
Maine (2nd District): A Large Rural area with a large Trump lead. Little debate here as the district’s single electoral vote goes…Trump.
Ohio: For me, this is the hardest state to predict. Trump has received no help from Rob Portman, yet he continues to hold a very narrow lead in the polling. However with rain expected throughtout the state on election day, the campaign with the better ground game would gain a slight advantage. It will be a very very tight race here with Gary Johnson’s 4% ultimately playing spoiler and giving the state to…Clinton.
Iowa: Trump beat every record during the Iowa caucuses, while Clinton underperformed. In a largely rural state with a slight registration advantage for Republicans the 6 electoral votes go to…Trump.
Georgia: It’s just weird to be talking about Georgia as a toss up state. The Clinton camp will undoubtedly try to turn out the large African American and Hispanic population in the state, but ultimately the Empire State of the South goes to…Trump.
North Carolina: Clinton’s campaign has been investing heavily in this state which is a must win for Trump. She has led in most of the recent polling, and the legislature has limited the time for early voting. In what is currently a tight race, the slight increases in Hispanic and African American registration give the final edge to…Clinton.
Florida: Over 2 million votes have already been cast in the Sunshine state, and Democrats are in a batter position now than they were at the same point in 2012 where Obama narrowly carried the state. Trump’s high unfavorable rating ammong Hispanic voters will be the diference and will be proven by a win for Republican Marco Rubio. Florida goes to…Clinton.
Colorado: Trump has been slowly, perhaps too slowly, gaining on Clinton in Colorado. However, the lack of a strong Senate campaign for Republicans and the precense of a minimum wage prop on the ballot tip the turnout and election to…Clinton.
Nevada: Republican Joe Heck has been running a strong US Senate campaign, yet the race remains deadlocked. The presidential polls here remain as tight as they can be, and the nationwide increase in Hispanic registration did not translate into a big increase in Nevada. This will be one of the tightest races on election day and ultimately goes to…Clinton.
Utah: This is the most interesting state in a crazy election cycle. For the first time in decades independent candidate Evan McMullin has a real shot at pulling off an upset. The Media has been giving McMillun alot of airtime in the past couple of weeks, presumably to hurt Donald Trump with more Conservative voters. Ultimately though the state goes to…Trump.
Arizona: AZ presents a perfect storm of disaster for the Trump campaign. A solid red state with a rapidly growing hispanic population. Trump has spent little to nothing of TV advertising in Arizona while Clinton has increased her media buy by as much as $2 million in recent weeks. The increase in Hispanic registration, the advantage Democrats have built in early voting, and two very motivating ballot initiatives for democrats give the Grand Canyon State’s 11 electoral votes to…Clinton.
I hope I’m wrong, but here is my FINAL ELECTORAL MAP PERDICTION: