Donald Trump won the Arizona Primary in a decisive fashion, winning every county in the state except for Graham county. He received 249,916 votes, accounting for 47.1% and got all 58 delegates. Meanwhile, Hillary won her primary with an even larger margin over Bernie Sanders, with 57.6% of the vote, yet receiving over 10k votes less than Trump (235,697).
In fact Republicans out-voted Democrats in the primary by over 120,000 votes. So it would stand to reason that Arizona would be an easy lock for Trump. Yet ever since August, RealClearPolitics has had Arizona classified as a “toss-up”. The polling has slightly favored Clinton while always staying inside the margin of error. Until Today.
New polling released today bring the RCP average in favor of Donald Trump, and in better news for the controversial candidate, the average now has him leading outside the margin of error. The average of the last 4 polls shows a lead of +4% for Donald Trump, while the margin of error for the four polls sits at +/- 3.7%.
This will surely come as welcome news to the Trump campaign which has top staffers reportedly shopping their resumes in the expectation that they will loose tomorrow.
I made the prediction that Trump would loose Arizona in a close race, and I still believe the level of organization and motivation I’ve seen from the Clinton camp coupled with the disarray I’ve seen from the GOP ranks will ultimately translate to a Clinton victory in spite of the polling. But it will come down to the wire.
In Arizona, we're stronger together when we vote.
— Hillary for Arizona (@HillaryforAZ) November 5, 2016